President Trump told Fox News correspondent Trey Yingst by phone Sunday that he is in a "deciding mode" on Iran. Yingst relayed the president's words on air: "very big things are going to be happening in the not-so-distant future," and "My question is, if and when do I blow the entire nation up? They better behave." Fox's live blog quoted three options: "Wipe it out, let it rot with the economy, or make a deal." Trump said he would "probably" be open to meeting Iran's president in New York this week. On Monday morning a projectile struck a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. Virtual Embassy told Americans: "leave Iran now."
A president is weighing in public whether to widen a war Congress has not authorized, in the week both governments' leaders speak from the same U.N. rostrum, and the price of the choice is posted at every fuel pump.
The war began Feb. 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. The United States blockades Iranian ports. A 60-day memorandum signed in June lowered the fighting and expired in August. On Sunday Iran's central military command, Khatam al-Anbiya, said it had information that Washington is preparing to resume strikes, and it promised retaliation against American bases. No report reviewed here establishes whether that statement came before or after Trump's remarks. The House voted 220-204 last week to direct an end to the hostilities, its third such vote. CBS News reported it is unclear whether the Senate will take the measure up.
- The U.K. maritime agency said two tanker crew had minor injuries; the ship sailed on.
- Al Jazeera, citing shipping data, counted 12 Hormuz crossings this weekend, down from 35.
- AAA's Sunday averages: regular $4.48, diesel a record $6.51; a year ago, $3.19 and $3.70.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian leaves Tehran Tuesday and addresses the General Assembly Wednesday. Iranian state media said Washington denied visas to his communications team. Trump meets leaders or foreign ministers of six Gulf states Tuesday, Axios reported. Nine U.S. embassies in the region issued security alerts Sunday. The decision reaches American troops on Gulf bases, Americans living in those nine countries, and the truckers, farmers and commuters who buy the fuel.
Disputedwhether the president's words are leverage toward a deal or a step toward a wider war, and who gets to decide.
The FramingsAdministration framing presents three open options and an Iran under pressure; the State Department confined Iran's delegation to its hotel and the U.N. Iranian-government framing (Khatam al-Anbiya, the Revolutionary Guard's Hossein Mohebbi, senior official Mohsen Rezaei) presents the United States as the party preparing new strikes and sets terms: an end to the war on all fronts, release of frozen funds, an end to the blockade. Mohebbi said, "we will certainly change the weaponry and the geography of the war." Gulf-mediator framing (Qatar's Majed Al Ansari) presents a deal within reach: "Open the strait, stop the war." Congressional war-powers framing, in both parties, presents a war without authorization; Rep. Zach Nunn, an Iowa Republican, said "sustained combat operations now require congressional authorization." Deterrence framing (House Foreign Affairs Chairman Brian Mast) presents Iran as "a continuous ongoing threat to the United States. Enough is enough." Market framing read diplomacy, not threat: Brent crude futures fell a fourth session Monday, to about $100, per Trading Economics.
The RecordTrump's words reached the public through Yingst's account of a phone call; no tape or transcript has been released. The Iranian statements were carried by state media and reported by CBS News and Al Jazeera. The tanker strike is in the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations notice; no one has claimed it. Confidence that Trump said what Yingst relayed: high. Confidence in any forecast of what he decides: low.
What to watch: Trump's General Assembly speech Tuesday, Sept. 22, and his meeting with Gulf leaders the same day. Pezeshkian's speech Wednesday, Sept. 23. Whether the Senate schedules the House resolution, H.Con.Res. 93, in its last two scheduled weeks before the election. AAA's daily diesel average.
Sources: AFP, Al Jazeera, Axios, CBS News, Trading Economics, Washington Examiner, AAA (fuel averages), Fox News (interview)
